Winter 2024/2025 Snowfall Predictions
This coming winter looks set to bring a fairly weak La Niña system to the Pacific. Agencies are currently putting that likelihood at 79% for December to February.
What will the upcoming northern hemisphere ski season hold? Here's the most recent forecast:
- Increased snowfall is expected in the northern U.S. and Canada due to La Niña.
- Below-average snowfall is predicted for most of Europe and the UK.
- The UK may experience warmer and milder winter conditions with less snow.
- Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) might bring occasional cold spells.
- Scandinavia could see more snowfall than other European regions.
As we reported in July, this coming winter looks set to bring a fairly weak La Niña system to the Pacific.
In the months since this forecast has been firming up, agencies have put that likelihood at 79% for December to February.
La Niña's Influence on Global Snow Conditions
The alternating El Niño and La Niña Pacific temperatures strongly influence snow conditions around the world’s largest ocean, and many believe its influence extends, to a lesser degree, to snow conditions as far away as Scandinavia and the European Alps.
Impact of Last Winter’s El Niño on North American Ski Areas
Last winter’s El Niño, bringing warmer temperatures to most after three winters of La Niña, was not good news for most North American ski areas. Most had a very dry first half of the season, so the return of La Niña, even if only a weak version, is being widely welcomed.
Despite all the negative El Niño fears this time last year and the poor season start, many resorts ended their 23-24 seasons with around average snowfall totals after the latter half of the winter turned very snowy.
Anticipation in the Pacific Northwest
Nowhere is looking forward more to La Niña’s return than the Pacific Northwest corner of North America, where La Niña usually means colder temperatures and more precipitation, which means, hopefully, a load more snow. Mt Baker in Washington state holds the world record for seasonal snowfall with 95 feet (29 metres), set 25 winters ago, so they’ll be hoping, if perhaps not for quite so much, certainly for a great winter.
Snowy Prospects for Alberta, BC, and the US Northwest
Other ski resorts in the likely sweet spot for snowy abundance are in Alberta and BC, Canada, including the continent’s largest, Whistler Blackcomb, as well as in Oregon, Washington State, Montana and Wyoming.
Cold and Snowy Winter Expected in Northeast North America
Climate and weather modelling also suggests that the Northeast of North America, including Canada’s Quebec and Ontario, New York State, Maine, Vermont, and as far into the Midwest as Wisconsin, should also be in for a cold and snowy winter.
Positive Outlook for Japanese 'Japow' Snow
And across the Pacific, as we reported in July, it’s looking positive for the famous ‘Japow’ powder snow arriving in abundance on Japanese slopes.
The picture is nuanced across the rest of the continent and still being fine-tuned as we get closer to the start of the season. Major ski states like California, Colorado, and Utah are expected to do better than last year but see average temperature and snowfall levels.
European Weather: The Influence of La Niña and El Niño
Opinion is divided on the amount of influence, or lack of, that the El Niño and La Niña Pacific cycles have on European weather conditions about 10,000km (6,200+ miles) away.
Most conclude that it can have some influence due to the global interconnectivity of systems, but European weather has many other stronger influences, so it’s chaos theory at play. This means it might influence some circumstances, but equally, it might not.
The Role of the Jet Stream in European Winter Conditions
One of the strongest influences it is credited with is the jet stream's position around the planet. La Niña tends to position it so that Scandinavia gets colder, snowier weather than average, and the rest of Europe gets slightly milder air. Some forecasters are predicting an average winter for the Alps, though.
Compare Snow History with our Interactive Tool
We have an extensive archive of over 15 years of snowfall history. Each resort page has a handy Snow History tool (found under the "Advanced" menu).
